Ease of use, integration, and completeness will prevail. Price points (currently) favor Amazon: $80 vs $120 annually, but with slightly different benefits: with Amazon it also gets you free shipping of stuff you order, and with Netflix, it also gets you the ability to have a DVD sent to you (though the $120/yr is the “one-at-a-time” plan).
But, like I said in a previous post, I’m already expecting the future already, and whichever service offers the most abundant tail of titles, delivered as directly to my TV as possible, easily searchable and browsable with my remote or iPad, will win.
Netflix is almost there with its ability to stream through my Apple TV, though they don’t yet have the AirPlay integration via my iPad like YouTube does. That means I can search for Netflix movies on my iPad, but I can’t start them playing on my TV via Apple TV once I’ve found them. I still have to use the remote to pick and enter a character at a time to do a search. With the next point release of iOS, iPad+AirPlay+Netflix should be possible.
I’ll play around with Amazon streaming, but at this point, I’m not going to hook my laptop up to my TV or buy yet another device if that’s what I have to do, so we’ll see if Apple and Amazon get together.